More On Heuristics
Introduction
| Main Heuristics*ii | Key points *i (more more detail see Nudges) |
| 1. Anchoring & adjustment (comparison & guessing) |
- Using a known/comparable 'fact' or belief & adjusting it to guess/decide something which is unknown - The 'comparable' reference is commonly not a good similarity - Estimates are commonly very inaccurate, resulting in unreliable guesses on which to base a decision - This thinking may be affected ( unhealthily 'primed') by mass media, misreporting, popular misconceptions, & myths - Different people arbitrarily select quite different 'reference points' or 'anchors' for the same unknown question. Some examples: i) when asked the question, such as - costs are something that is completely new to them - how long to complete a task which they have no knowledge |
| 2. Availability (perceived popularity/frequency/rarity, visibility, commonness) |
- Perceived commonness/familiarity of something reduces perceived popularity of something & the basis of trust/credibility - This is often quite different from real popularity & is rarely a basis of trust - Perceptions are generally influenced by mass media, which equates to unhelpful 'priming' - The tendency operates in reverse, ie perceived uncommonness or rarity tends to produce perceptions of low popularity, low credibility & distrust, which may be very unreliable/unfair. Some examples i) the media attention given to homicides compared with suicides results in the misperception that homicides are more common than suicide; in fact, the opposite is true by a large margin ii) people are far more cautious about taking a plane trip than crossing a road or driving their car; yet statistically flying in an aeroplane is considerably safer than the other two iii) many people continue to drink too much alcohol with thousands dying daily from alcohol-related diseases yet will not touch ecstasy which has a minimal death rate |
| 3. Representativeness (stereo typing, comparisons) |
- People refer to personal stereotypes (based on race, ethnicity, religion, gender, sexuality, age, social class, beliefs, interests, profession, etc) or assumptions in seeking references for unknowns - This is highly subjective, susceptible to misinformation, & a very unreliable basis for forming opinions & making decisions, eg there is a tendency to extrapolate from a small sample to produce a wrong conclusion about the bigger picture; the sample to be representative of the population - This thinking is affected (unhelpfully 'primed') by mass media promotion of stereotypes & biases - There can be confusion between or reversal of, cause & effect or a faulty correlation An example: the misperception that cold weather can result in catching a cold, whereas the cold virus is passed person-to-person |
| 4. Optimism/Overconfidence (over/underestimation, complacency, ignoring or taking risks) |
- People tend to underestimate expenses/costs, timescales, complexity & difficulty of unfamiliar challenges - People tended overestimate rewards & the ease of unfamiliar tasks - This can cause denial, inertia, complacency, extravagance, wastage, delays, failure to make budgets, setting unreasonable goals & expectations plus insufficient planning, attention, resourcing, times, etc - can result in people finding themselves in awkward, embarrassing positions where misjudgements have been made; this can be compounded by reluctance or denial in accepting that corrective action is necessary, causing situations to go from bad to worse; use of feedback to handle this situation, ie countering the risks of optimism/overconfidence - this is the opposite instinct to 'loss aversion' (see below) - The 'optimism' heuristic is closely linked with risk - either as an affect of low perceived risk, or a cause for ignoring or underestimating risk or of justifying taking a risk. Some examples: i) people mismanaging their household budgets by initially spending too much; they hope their money will last & fail to check account balances; they need to develop budgets & control expenditure, rather than developing a lifetime habit of failing to balance outgoings & incomes; this can lead to people seeking & committing to punitive, expensive loans ii) taking a hopeful approach to retirement rather than planning & saving iii) avoiding medical diagnosis & treatment when sick iv) delaying household repairs until damage becomes dangerous v) defer & procrastinate in considering the urgency of all sorts of necessary jobs |
| 5. Loss aversion (holding on, resistance) |
- People tend to value something more when they possessed and/or if they do not have it but wanted it - People tend to resist (to a disproportionate degree) losing something they already possess or exchanging it for something of equal or even greater value - Assessment & decisions are made to avoid a perceived loss, even if the 'loss' would be more than compensated by a different gain, ie "...Roughly speaking, losing something makes you twice as miserable as gaining the same thing makes you happy..." Richard Thaler et al as quoted by Businessballs, 2023 - This causes inertia & a tendency to default to inaction, ie maintain the status quo - It is a major cause of risk avoidance which produces inertia, ie most people tend to avoid risk as there can be many unknowns; many decisions are made to preserve, conserve or consolidate the current position, ie status quo - Loss aversion (avoid risk) is the opposite instinct to optimism (ignore, minimise or justify the risk) |
| 6. Status quo bias (inertia, resistance to change, default to inaction) |
- A tendency for humans to want to maintain things as they are & not change, ie 'do nothing'; human brains prefer this (for more details, see elsewhere in the knowledge base) - People generally fear change, especially of its uncertain nature - Fear of error, embarrassment, rejection, etc can contribute to inertia (where people find it easier to do nothing rather than make a change; tendency to avoid change, effort, risk, aversion to time-consuming complexity, avoiding discomfort of associated with doing something differently) depending on personality & life-stage situation - It can be compounded by laziness, conversion to complexity & effort, etc Some examples: i) use of default positions in choice of options, ie happens in the event of no change or decision, ie 'opt-in' or 'opt-out' which can disadvantage the customers/clients, eg organ donation ii) lack of adoption of new technology despite it making tasks easier to do iii) changing career &/or working for a new qualification |
| 7. Framing (orientation, accentuation, presentation) |
- The presentation or orientation of information can alter its perceived meaning/ nature - This includes positive/negative accentuation, juxtaposition, association, or many other ways of sorting through the attractiveness/un-attractiveness of something - The description of choice can entirely alter the way people notice & perceive the meaning & implications of the choice - Language is immensely flexible; something which is a good possibility/option can be described or framed as a poor choice & vice versa - It affects the way people feel & think about something due to the way in which a choice or option is described - It is linked with relevance & self-image Some examples: i) death rates vs survival rates, ie focus is on death rates which has a negative impact on perceptions of treatment; while a focus on survival rates tends to increase agreement for treatment ii) glass half -full/half empty analogy, ie half-full has a more positive impact than half-empty ii) somebody is more likely to spill a drink if told 'don't spill that drink' rather than 'be careful with that drink' |
| 8. Temptation (greed, ego, short-term reward, inability to delay gratification) |
- people prefer short term more than long-term rewards, whether the values are real or perceived - people are attracted to choices that they perceive to be easy, &/or which they perceive will make life easier for them - people are tempted by having something now, more than something bigger in the future people are tempted by different things based on personality and situation - linked with all these elements is the notion 'what's in it for me' (WIIFM) - generally people are attracted to options that offer quick appealing rewards; rewards can be i) material ii) financial iii) optimising return on effort/input like big outcome from small investment iv) recognition, praise, thanks v) needs of ego & self-image vi) avoidance of challenging/difficult efforts vii) responsibility viii) control ix) security & protection x) power xi) friends/relatives/colleagues, etc xii) love & affection xiii) food, sex, shelter, etc NB the value placed on a reward depends on people's circumstances and feelings at the time. An example: i) gambling opportunities, such as lotteries, ie possibility of a large reward for a small effort or investment (even if logic, facts & experience suggest otherwise, ie odds of several millions-to-one of winning a major prize |
| 9. Mindlessness (negligence, not concentrating) |
- People sometimes form views & decisions without concentrating, or by being negligent, ie tendency of people to make decisions carelessly - Distractions, illusion, stress, complexity, pressure, laziness, anxiety, poor awareness or education, deception, false assumptions, declining mental power, difficulty, etc can be major factors in reducing concentration or mindfulness - Simple 'human error' or other common weaknesses can cause oversights and mistakes - It is related to framing (the way that a choice is described) & over-optimism (hoping that things are OK) Some examples: i) a perceived free or discount offer can distract & encourage people to ignore more important issues ii) failure to read the terms & conditions in contract, ie 'small print' |
| 10. Self-control strategies (habits & routines to counter weaknesses) |
- People are often aware that they have weaknesses, bad habits, etc - People commonly devise routines & protections against the perceived weaknesses - Strategies that people use to protect themselves from their own weaknesses become the new heuristic tendencies & potential weaknesses - Expressions used to acknowledge vulnerabilities to weaknesses include: "- I am my own worst enemy - I would lose my head if it were not screwed on - I should have made a list - I should count to 10 (to give thinking time before speaking/acting) - I can't resist a bargain - I wear my heart on my sleeve - I should have known it was too good to be true..." Businessballs, 2023 Some examples i) putting alarm clocks out of reach to counter the temptation to switch off the alarm and go back to sleep ii) keeping a watch a few minutes fast to counter a tendency to be habitually late iii) using the same PIN code for all secure devices and accounts, to counter the fear forgetting lots of different ones iv) having more bank accounts than necessary for the fear of being unable to control spending using if using fewer accounts v) setting task deadlines in advance of actual due dates for fear of missing them vi) keeping unnecessarily large inventories for ear of running out/forgetting to reorder |
| 11. Following the herd (conforming, mob instinct) |
- Following the herd/crowd without question causes 'the mob effect', mob rule, lowest common denominator, stupid committee decisions & underpins fashions, fads, crazes & myths - It is caused by people's need for an affirmation (being like others); avoiding risk & embarrassment of being wrong or out of step with others; strength in numbers; fear of being isolated, ridiculed, persecuted, retribution, etc - Mass media, authorities & institutions with vested interests in certain beliefs commonly help build & maintain false group beliefs - It is a very substantial aspect of group & societal behaviour - It is linked with fear and the 'spotlight impact', ie somebody says something incorrect during a conversation, and the spotlight effect causes them to think “Now everybody must be talking about how I'm stupid,” (see below) - Non-conformers are commonly ridiculed or persecuted - Conforming is regarded as a 'perceived' norm, which is not necessarily accurate Some examples: i) all wars are based on soldiers and populations conforming ii) sports and music fan clubs are based on conforming iii) blindly follow popular internet platforms like Facebook, Google, Twitter, etc iv) fashion industry with strongly branded merchandise that are made popular by celebrity endorsement |
| 12. Spotlight effect (anxiety, pressure, 'all eyes on me', fear of making mistakes) |
- People tend to imagine their individual acts/decisions are very noticeable to a group, ie tendency of people to overestimate the visibility/significance to others of their own decisions and action - Feeling of being 'centre-stage' with a spotlight on you - Yet in reality, most people do not notice what you do & decide; they care very little about what you do and decide - This can produce unhelpful pressures on thinking & influence decision-making - Fear is a major factor (fear of embarrassment, criticism, making mistakes, isolation, etc) - Impact can be to pressurise our thinking & decision-making, one way or another, as if everyone were judging us &/or dependent on our decision. - this effect is linked with 'following the herd' An example i) organisations can exploit this weakness by persuading individuals to conform to a false reality, eg advertising promotions; convince audiences that the product/services/lifestyle being promoted is far more popular & 'normal' than it actually is, eg tobacco industry with product placement in movies |
| 13. Priming (preparing people for thinking & decisions) |
- People can be helped to approach choices in a more prepared state; their openness & preferences towards choices are influenced by what has happened before and while an option is emerging - This happens before the choice is experienced - Many people need & benefit from this affect - The 'choice architect' is responsible to extended peoples attitudes, as part of the choice design - The manner in which people are 'softened/ hardened' for a situation or option is introduced; related to facilitative theory, NLP, clear language, transactional analysis*iv, etc - Includes imagining or visualisation of the point of view or feeling (consciously or unconsciously imagines the feeling or consequences of the decision) - Linked with framing, body language, self-image, conditioning, defaults, inertia & stimulus-sponsored compatibility*iii; need to be careful that our brain is not being tricked!! - The extent to which the look and feel of something prepares us for a certain response - daily you encounter communications/stimuli that are deliberately designed to be helpful or unhelpful, ie not in your best interest Some examples: i) sports coaches use it to influence feelings & decisions of athletes and teams ii) the notion of fighting for a 'God or Queen/King and country' iii) attractive images, stories, jokes, analogies, etc can be used in priming iv) the 'small print' in contracts tends to discourage most of us from reading it, ie the stimulus is that it is hard to read and small print equates to unimportant v) a door which must be pushed to open but has large handles on it, so people wrongly think it needs to be pulled vi) use or avoidance of certain words to influence human responses, eg "...- the word 'how?' is more likely to produce a positive response than 'why?' - words like 'situation' and 'challenge' are more positively stimulating than words like'problem' & 'difficulty' - in communications, designed to motivate, using the word 'but' usually prompts a negative feeling, compared to 'and' or 'also' - single, clear positive message/instructions/requests were better than communications that carry more than one main message - a request 'to do' something generally produces better response levels than a request which instructs 'not to' or 'don't' do something..." Businessballs, 2023 |
| 14. Feedback*v (reviewing past thinking & decision-making to enable improvement for present & future thinking & decision-making) |
- It equates to helping people understand their situations, thinking and decisions by reflecting on past thinking & decisions - Being open to help/influence from feedback or reflection for current & future thinking & decision-making - Using feedback for designing choices & optimising effectiveness - Response (especially emotional) to feedback depends upon how it is received &/or delivered, ie feedback may be accurate but be given in the wrong way &/or wrong time; this can limit its positive impact - need to design feedback and effective systems that are helpful - linked with transactional analysis*iv |
| Supplementary heuristics*vi | |
| 15. Positioning (moving things, prominence) |
- Moving things, prominence, proximity, etc - Physical or visual positioning of something that people engage with, or which influences the way people engage with something else |
| 16. Limiting (expiry dates, limited stock) |
- Expiry dates, limited stock, rarity, etc - The impression that opportunity could be lost, or something is in limited supply |
| 17. Sympathy (ease of adoption, path of least resistance) |
- Humans instinctively try to conserve their energy; more about efficiency than laziness - As you prefer to make life as easy as possible, you tend to behave in predictable ways concerning the ease in which a task or process can be approached, ie taking the path of least resistance - Choices which are designed to match the 'path of least resistance' will be preferred to those which do not - Design choices that are sympathetic to people's inclinations & habits, ie 'go with the flow' of people's natural or habitual behaviours - People will go for the easier option - Design choice (action or decision) so that it easy to people, then they are not likely to take |
| 18. Accessibility (efficiency communications, reach, penetration) |
- How many people see, receive the communications? - Aim is to maximise exposure to the message by seeing, receiving, reading, absorbing, understanding, impacting, experiencing, etc to the maximum extent - People can only correctly begin to think and decide about things if they are properly informed of the facts and meanings - Technology is important; some communication methods require technological knowledge that some people lack - Can be linked with status quo bias, mindlessness, optimism, etc - Information can cost money - Need to consider the "what, how, where, when" of choices*vii - Check with your audience how to improve accessibility of messages and which option best reach them Some examples; i) using a larger font/type size improves people's ease in reading them, especially for older people ii) translating material into different languages increases accessibility to foreign language speakers iii) making material available in different media platforms increases the chance of people to see the material iv) using multimedia to reach a wider audience |
| 19. Likeability (reputation, trust, credibility, honesty, integrity, ethics) |
- This factor influences people's openness or willingness to be influenced - The more likeable the 'nudger', the more inclined the receiver will respond positively - Linked with priming - Can be both at organisational & individual level - People tend to dislike or distrust individuals &/or organisations that display bad behaviours*viii - Social media has greatly increased potential for reputational damage of bad behaviour - Failings in products are easier to remedy than reputational damage Some examples: i) partisan politics ii) social policies iii) scandals (political, corporate, etc) |
| 20. Relevance (meaningful fit with audience needs, situation, self-image) |
- People respond best to situations, choices, communications, etc that are relevant to them, ie their needs, situation, self-image, etc - Is the communication framed to be personally relevant? - Does the message 'fit' and/or make you feel comfortable? - Need to genuinely understand, empathise & sympathise with your audience, ie know your audience - Linked with framing |
| 21. Mood-changers (inspiration, passion, flair, intrigue, humour) |
- How do people feel (emotions)? - Linked with framing but different *ix - People's responsiveness improves when smiling, happy, curious, amused, entertained, surprised, inspired, enthused, uplifted plus other positively motivating effects of feelings, etc - Can be influenced by the enthusiasm and belief of others - Choice architect should ask themselves some questions (see below)*x - People respond positively to inspiration and enthusiasm |
| 22. Fear (thinking driven by risk or threat) |
- Linked with loss aversion, framing, status quo inertia, temptation, mindlessness, self-control strategies, conforming, spotlight affect, limiting, mood-change - Fear can be exploited for cynical purposes by authorities, political movements & parties, corporations, leaders, governments, religious organisations, etc*xi - Fear is an important part of life, ie natural fear has enabled the human species to survive*xii - Need to reduce unethical use of fear |
| 23. Facilitation (helping people understand and decide, according to their personal needs and thinking processes and response) |
- Helping people to improve their thinking and decision-making for themselves, ie help people understand their own situation before making decisions - Becoming more important with the continuing development of computer technology, especially AI - Linked with priming & feedback |
| 24. Sensory (sound/music, smells, touch, colour, temperature, humidity) |
- Sensory stimulants can have powerful influences on thinking and decisions - Smells, ie smell of various foods, especially cooking, increases people's thinking about eating and the likelihood that they will decide to eat something - Sounds, ie can increase people's conscious thinking & unconscious feelings; can evoke different moods, such as sadness, fear, pride, etc which can impact thoughts & decisions; certain music is associated with organised groups of people such as football clubs, nationalities, religions, military, etc; sound & music such as films, advertisements, documentaries, political broadcasts, etc can have powerful impacts on people's thinking & their decision-making Others instances: i) water (being suddenly soaked in water discourages people from being energised and organised, eg use of water cannons by riot police) ii) addition of salt, sugars, fats and other strong tastes in food tends to strongly influence people's reaction to them iii) impact of sunlight and warmth as opposed to darkness/dullness & cold; to achieve more attention, increased positivity makes people more amenable and receptive to intervention iv) exposing people to naturally green countryside is a positively-conducive environment compared with being inside buildings made of concrete, etc v) cigarette and alcohol consumption ( the appeal of smoking is increased by apsychological synergy with alcohol consumption, ie when taken together they increase the chemical pleasure-effect of each |
(main source: Businessballs, 2023)
Notes
i) There can be cultural differences, ie signs, signals, etc that can mean different things in different cultures
(for more details, see elsewhere in the Knowledge Base)
ii) Initially developed by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein as found in Businessball, 2023
iii) Stimulus-response compatibility (S-RC)
"...refers to whether the look and feel of the communication or signal (the 'stimulus') matches (is 'compatible' with) the message that we receive or infer (our 'response') from the communications......It is an aspect of semiotics, which is the study/science of how meaning is conveyed in a language, signage, symbols, metaphors, etc., and generally any other visual carrier of meaning..."
Businessballs, 2023
S-RC impact on thinking is where the brain is tricked by incompatibility; it overlaps with several other heuristics and
"...is hugely significant in how (usually visual) communications & signals are designed, in terms of human expectations and conditioning, so that commonly we decide about things prematurely, often not even bothering to examine and understand the detail..."
Businessballs, 2023
Some examples:
a) The colour green means go or okay while red means stop or danger
b) Capital letters and/or bold print emphasise the importance, loudness, priority, etc, irrespective of the words/meaning
c) A tick '?' means 'yes' while a 'X' means 'no', usually
NB the digital age is increasing the number of recognisable patterns, customs, symbols, etc
iv) Transactional analysis - researchers has shown
"...- The human brain acts like a tape recorder, and whilst we may 'forget' experiences, the brain still has a record
- along with events the brain also records the associated feelings, and both feelings and events stay locked together
- it is possible for a person to exist in two states simultaneously (because patients replaying hidden events and they feelings would talk about them objectively at the same time)
- hidden experiences when replayed are vivid, and the effect how we feel at the time of replaying
- there is a certain connection between mind and body, ie the link between biological and psychological, eg a psychological fear of spiders and biological feeling of nausea..."
Businessballs, 2023
It is concerned with personal one-for-one communications.
v) Feedback should be constructive and help people in their thinking & decision-making, ie
- confirm what types of decisions are being made, ie good or bad
- check, ask, prompt, correct people whenever an error of judgement might have occurred
- suggest alternatives and remedial action in the event of errors
- needs to be given at the appropriate time and in an appropriate manner
vi) developed by Businessballs, 2023
vii) consider the 'what, how, where, when' of choices:
"...- what: content, supporting facts & figures (consider comparison & stereotypes), language, wording, typeface & design, size, format, layout, etc
- how: delivered, packaged, available, linked, supported, justified, framed & primed, etc
- where: located, positioned, available, etc
- when: available, frequency, repeated, reminded, etc..."
Businessballs, 2023
viii) bad behaviour such as arrogance, duplicity, dishonesty, pervasiveness plus any other traits which undermine
the strength of connections between individuals and organisations
ix) framing vs mood changers (framing mainly describes the option or choice while mood changers impact the mood of the audience. Other comments:
"...- framing mainly information, description, affecting how people think, whereas
- mood-changers (and related motivators) connect with people's emotions and how they feel..."
Businessballs, 2023
x) Questions of choice architects
"...- Does the choice design enthuse people?
- Does the communication convey excitement or some other appealing mood?
- How can the intervention be designed so that people will feel more inclined to engage with it?..."
Businessballs, 2023
xi) Examples of exploiting fear:
"...- religious organisations ('you will go to hell/not go to heaven unless....')
- political movements ('migrants, or some other minority grouping, are taking over our city/country')
- governments ('we had to wage a war overseas and increase surveillance of our own society')
- corporations ('you will not be attractive to the opposite sex unless you buy')..."
Businessballs, 2023
xii) Fear has helped us to survive, eg fear of
"... - lions, tigers, snakes, big spiders, scorpions, etc
- things we might eat but look and smell bad
- explosives
- sharp or pointed things
- heights (falling from a height that is life-threatening)
- the dark (risk to safety increases without light)
- strangers (especially behaving inappropriately)..."
Businessballs, 2023