Framework 156 Future Proofing

Introduction

Five key elements to successfully handling the future, ie

- foresight

- agility

- resilience

- response

- ownership

NB Mindset and relationships link the 5 together.

Five key elements

i) foresight (anticipating possible imminent changes; understanding trends; investigating a range of possibilities such as using scenario planning, 3 horizons, etc; future consciousness, ie
"...how to be awake to a deep uncertainty about the future, while still sustaining optimism and willingness to act..."
Bob Dick, 2023

NB The future as such does not exist. You can only act in the present, because when the future happens it becomes the present.
"...our aim......is to improve our ability to anticipate and prepare for an uncertain future, while recognising that we are unavoidably contained in the present. The present is all we have. Let's learn to use it more effectively..."
Bob Dick, 2023

Some issues that need considering include:
    - the world is becoming more complex
    - we are more interconnected
    - traditional strategies, structures, etc are no longer suitable
    - flexibility is needed)

ii) agility (responding quickly to what happens, ie the 'quick-witted and quick-footed'; linked with agility is flexibility, trial and error, experimentation, etc; use highly reliable organisational  (HRO) concepts like in emergency organisations eg hospitals, war zone, firefighters, etc.
"...It would be expected that in such high-risk situations, organisations would be very high rates of error and even disaster. In fact in many such organisations, errors and disasters are rare. The organisations have learnt to respond quickly and effectively even to sudden and unexpected threats..."
Bob Dick, 2023

HRO's key features include:
    - honest and direct communications
    - focused on what is actually happening, ie the reality of the situation; not what it is supposed to be or what you wish it to be
    - encourage individuals, teams, organisation, etc to prepare and learn to act quickly for unexpected events that may occur
    - no blame culture, ie mistakes and errors do happen
    - acknowledge complexity and unpredictability
    - understand that decisions are made on incomplete information
    - value expertise above official rank, ie 'expertise outranks rank'
    - generally develop robustness and resilience, ie
"...ability to survive the unexpected and even the disastrous..."
Bob Dick, 2023)

iii) resilience (it involves individual and collective or group resilience; establishing robustness; bouncing back quickly from unexpected setbacks or obstacles; increased tolerance of failure and a willingness to learn from it; building an organisation that learns to survive, and even thrive, no matter what happens; aiming to be more responsive to the unpredictable and emerging situation); uses the 4 Rs:

    - redundancy/replaceability (not dependent on one aspect such as machine, person, system, supplier, customer, product or service, etc; have backups)  

    - requisite variety/repertoire (flexible enough and having adequate resources to adjust to the unexpected, ie people control procedures and technology, not the other way round
"...the ability to make an appropriate response to each separate challenge that the situation presents..."
Bob Dick, 2023)

    - resources (adequately resourced with many options available and able to respond quickly; on the other hand, lean organisations can be brittle)

    - relationships (interaction between people; ideally, people working together collaboratively, supporting one another:
"...When relationships are good and trust is high, other issues are more likely to be resolved......at their best, in good high-trust relationships, people relate to one another real person to real person, not role to role. People identify with one another. They feel each other's pleasure and pain..."
Bob Dick, 2023

Self-dislosure, ie you don't know a person until you know their story; knowing each other's story is a good foundation to develop strong relationships; the higher the level of self-disclosure, stronger the relationship will be. This involves speaking (telling the story without discomfort) and listening (being intensely curious about the story, ie asking questions); it involves a desire to understand the other person.

 iv) response (this involves planning, ie knowing how to respond and practise, ie ensuring that we can do it and intend to; action is oriented to whatever happens; need to be honest, transparent, accountability, timely, etc; acting effectively, efficiently and equitably when required; activating recovery by being prepared for a crisis; being willing to be opportunistic as things will happen that are unexpected, ie new opportunities; more experimentation, trial and error, etc; being ambitious and aspirational; seeking feedback and being reflective; sometimes short-term benefits, eg cost-cutting, etc can have an immediate, positive impact on profitability but can have a negative impact in the medium to long-term sustainability as less resources are available to handle the unexpected, ie it can make the organisation more fragile and vulnerable rather than resilience and robust; relationships are pivotal.

An example of planning, and practice is the fire precautions in a high-rise building: the designing of the structure and procedures are the planning and regular fire drills is the practice.

It is best to plan for multiple, different futures; have people involved in the planning who are those who will be implementing so that they understand the plans and believe in them.

When a crisis occurs, at first act to ensure survival and then look for new opportunities that often accompany a crisis or disaster.

Key points of disaster recovery

    - implement your emergency and communication plans (requires constant monitoring to identify the right time to implement the plans

    - keep all stakeholders informed (maintain good relationships, including communications with all stakeholders as they can be a valuable source of information on developing trends)

    - communicate meaningfully (people like meaningful action, especially if it is widely shared, eg President Kennedy in 1962:
"...The goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth..."

When he made this statement, it was unknown if it could be done; however it had appeal, ie meaning, and was achieved)

    - compassionate action to others (as we are social animals, we like helping others - it gives us satisfaction, eg in Brisbane, Australia, a Mud Army of around 16,000 volunteers was established to assist those impacted by the floods in 2021 & 2022)

    - focus (in words and action) on people first ('we are all in this together'; focus on employees first as good employees look after customers.))

v) ownership (maximise ownership (buy-in) by impacted stakeholders; do this by co-creating, co-designing, etc so that impacted stakeholders develop ownership and commitment, ie it is their change process, etc; relationships are pivotal, ie
"...When they are good, everything else can be easier and more effective..."
Bob Dick, 2023)

NB Linking the 5 elements above are:

- mindset (built over time via decisions and action; willing to challenge the status quo; being curious, creative, innovative, imaginative, etc; mistakes or failures are treated as learning experience; being vulnerable, ie accepting that it is impossible to know everything; willing to delegate, empower, engage others, etc; vivid imagination, ie from your brain's point of view, imagining something activates the same neural circuits as the actual performance.)

- relationships (build healthy relationships - for more detail see the above text; sphere/zone of influence (formal and informal); networks (internal and external))
Each of them is important; they support and enhance each other; if handled correctly they can prepare an organisation for almost any eventuality.

The personal skills required at each:

i) foresight - are you good at anticipating the unexpected?

ii) agility - how quick-footed are you to respond to the unexpected?

iii) resilience - how good are you to withstanding unexpected shocks?

iv) response - how easily can you restore good functioning?

v) ownership - are impacted stakeholders buying into the process?

Summary
"...you can think of 'future-proofing' as a similar process to fire precautions, not only the fire, and because it depends on people's actual mindset, and the prevailing organisational culture. Those don't happen overnight. They are built slowly, over time, through organisation decisions and actions generally. If regular behaviour changes, over time attitudes and mindsets and culture change to be consistent with the actions..."
Bob Dick, 2023

It takes time to develop skills, qualities and practices for foresight (to anticipate what might happen), agility (to develop responsiveness), resilience (reduced impacted long-term impact of a crisis or disaster), response (action oriented; planning and practice) and ownership (buy-in) plus mindset and relationships.

Being prepared is like a form of insurance.