More on Cognitive Bias - Ten Troublesome Human Instincts or Cognitive Misconceptions cont. 12
Summary
Ten Instincts
1. The Gap (our tendency to divide things in 2 distinct & often conflicting groups that have an imagined gap between them, eg us vs them)
2. The Negativity (our tendency to notice the bad more than the good; believing that things are getting worse when they are actually getting better)
3. Straight Line (our tendency to assume that a line will just continue straight & ignoring that such lines are rare in reality)
4. Fear (our hardwired tendency to pay more attention to frightening things)
5. Size (our tendency to get things out of proportion, or misjudge the size of things)
6. Generalisation (our tendency to mistakenly group together things or people, or countries that are actually very different
7. Destiny (the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, all cultures; that things are as they are because of inescapable reason)
8. Single Perspective (a tendency to focus on a single cause or perspective when it comes to understanding the world; relying on media)
9. Blaming (a tendency to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened)
10. Urgency (our tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, & in doing so, amplifying our other instincts)
"...misconceptions disappear only if there is some equally simple but more relevant way of thinking to replace them..."
Hans Rosling et al, 2018
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Ten rules of thumb helping to avoid over-dramatic interpretations
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Dramatic instinct
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Example
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Rule of thumb
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Example
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| 1 | Gap instinct | 'Look at the gap!' | Locate the majority | 'Is there really a gap?' |
| 2 | Negativity instinct | 'It's getting worse!' | Expect negative news | 'Would improvement get attention?'. |
| 3 | Straight line instinct | 'It just continues!' | Imagine bending lines | 'Why would this line not bend?' |
| 4 | Fear instinct | 'It's scary!' | Calculate the risk | 'Is it really dangerous?' |
| 5 | Size instinct | 'It's big!' | Check the proportions | 'Is it big in comparison?' |
| 6 | Generalization instinct | 'They're all the same!' | Check your categories | 'How are they different?' |
| 7 | Destiny instinct | 'It never changes!' | Notice slow changes | 'Isn't it always changing slowly?' |
| 8 | Single-perspective instinct | 'This is the solution!' | Use multiple tools | 'What other solutions exist?' |
| 9 | Blame instinct | 'That's the bad guy!' | Resist pointing fingers | 'What system made this possible?' |
| 10 | Urgency instinct | 'It is now or never!' | Take small steps | 'Can we take decisions as we go?' |
(source: Wikipedia, 2022)
NB Need to be curious and humble
- being curious
"...means being open to new information and actively seeking it out. It means embracing facts which don't fit your worldview and trying to understand the implications. It means letting your big mistakes trigger curiosity instead of embarrassment..."
Hans Rosling et al, 2018
- being humble
"...It means being realistic about the extent of your knowledge. It means being happy to say, 'I don't know'. Also means, when you do have an opinion, being prepared to change it when you discover new facts..."
Hans Rosling et al, 2018