(More on Mega-trends - 2022 - cont. 3)
3. The Escalating Health Imperative
Introduction
With ageing global populations and new health challenges, such as pandemics, anti-microbial resistance, etc, health care expenditure is expected to increase significantly.
The pandemic
"...has revealed and intensified existing health challenges around the burden of chronic illness and mental health difficulties. But it has also emphasised the importance of social and economic determinants of health..."
CSIRO, 2022
There will be increasing focus on preventative and precision health.
Impacts of this megatrend
i) rising health care costs
"...the catch-22 of modern medicine is that as people are diagnosed earlier and live with conditions for longer, health utilisation increases......Over the past two decades per capita spending on health in Australia has risen at an average annual rate of 2.7%..."
CSIRO, 2022
This is putting budgetary pressures on other government expenditures.
ii) heightened risk of infectious diseases
"...infectious disease outbreaks have increased in line with global population growth, air travel, urbanisation, livestock handling and wildlife harvesting. Infectious disease events are driven by factors such as rising population density and global environmental change, as intact ecosystems reduce the probability of pathogen transmission amongst humans, livestock and wildlife..."
CSIRO, 2022
Several significant zoonotic (transferred from animals to humans) disease outbreaks preceded COVID-19 like
- SARS (2003)
- influenza A (HSN1 in 2005 and H1N1 in 2009)
- Ebola (2012)
- MERS (2015)
More recently concerns about Japanese encephalitis, monkeypox, influenza, etc..
"...Next-generation DNA sequencing is rapidly accelerating responses to emerging infectious diseases and the identification of virus variants. Ongoing investment in early detection and prevention is associated with lower economic and mortality costs and these measures are needed to improve our future resilience to infectious disease risks..."
CSIRO, 2022
iii) the emerging anti-microbial resistance (AMR) risk
AMT is regarded as one of the top global health issues.
"...It is associated with the emergence of bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi that are resistance to medicine such as antibiotics..."
CSIRO, 2022
iv) our ageing population
"...the ratio of working age people to non-working age people is predicted to decline..."
CSIRO, 2022
This will have a negative impact on economic growth.
v) changes in health-insurance patterns
Decline of health-insurance covering hospital treatment
"...the greatest decline was observed in younger cohorts, who might be less likely to utilise the healthcare system as frequently as older cohorts..."
CSIRO, 2022
This will place more pressure on public health resources.
In Australia, private health-insurance premiums have grown faster than wages.
vi) a growing chronic ill-health burden
"...The burden of chronic disease is rising across the globe..."
CSIRO, 2022
In developed countries this is linked with lack of exercise, poor eating habits, overweight or obesity, lack of proactive chronic-disease detection and management (like routine medical appointments and tests).
"...people with disabilities also have an increased risk of contracting the virus......Delays in the detection, monitoring or treatment of chronic conditions could have long-term impacts on health..."
CSIRO, 2022
vii) sleeping more, but less well
"...poor sleep can have a negative impact on health, including a higher risk of premature death, heart disease and cancer..."
CSIRO, 2022
(for more details, see elsewhere in the Knowledge Base)
Recent research has shown that physical activity can improve sleep patterns and reduce the negative impacts of inadequate sleep.
viii) the burden of mental health
The pandemic has increased the levels of psychological distress including an increase in risk factors for suicidal behaviour.
Other elements include stress, anxiety, depression.
"... Social connection is a key protective factor that can promote more positive well-being outcomes during periods of high uncertainty and distress..."
CSIRO, 2022
ix) a strong case for preventative health
"...health protection, eg vaccinations and legislative intervention, eg taxing sugar sweetened beverages were associated with a high return on investment from mass health promotions..."
CSIRO, 2022
Socio-economic determinants of health include housing, social support and education.
x) the promise of precision health
"...precision health technologies can transform clinical care. For example, analysis of community-wide health data can be used to detect and tailor interventions for chronic diseases. While precision health can be costly, emerging evidence suggests that these interventions are as cost-effective as usual care, and this will likely improve as technologies, such as genome sequencing, continue to drop in price..."
CSIRO, 2022