(More on Mega-trends - 2022 - cont. 2)

2. Leaner, Cleaner and Greener

Introduction

With increasing global population plus higher incomes there will be greater pressure on the finite food, water, minerals and energy resources. However, these challenges are driving innovations, ie
"...aim to do more with less, achieve carbon neutrality, reduced biodiversity loss and address the global wastage challenge......explores the possibilities of pushing us towards a more sustainable horizon..."
CSIRO, 2022

Impacts of this megatrend

i) future demand for food

Even though the global risk of hunger is expected to decline with improved global food security, the challenge of adequately feeding everyone is still significant.
"...the United Nations estimate that 75 billion tonnes of fertile soil and 12,000,000 ha of productive farmland capable of producing 20,000,000 t of grain is lost to desertification and land degradation each year..."
CSIRO, 2022

ii) a growing appetite for alternative protein

With rising incomes the global demand for a protein is increasing. Traditional farm protein sources from farm animals (cattle, poultry, pig, sheep, goats, etc) are under threat from plant-based meats, edible insects, seaweed, etc

iii) synthetically engineering new biological solutions

Synthetic biology
"...provides tailored solutions to a range of complex challenges......These technologies can be applied to produce food with less energy, water and land; grow lower-emissions building materials; engineer biofuel alternatives to petroleum; accelerate vaccine developments and produce one of the strongest biomaterials, spider silk..."
CSIRO, 2022

Synthetic Science

It is the idea that synthetic science will allow us to change everything from how we create medicines, food, animals, plants, etc and even human beings. A good example is developing synthetic protein, or meat, made from cultures in a petri dish.

Need to evaluate challenges around the ethics and safety of these technologies.

iv) increasing demand for minerals

It is expected
"...Demand for steel, zinc, copper, aluminium, rare earth elements, lithium and nickel will continue to grow. This demand is fuelled by rising population and income levels, urbanisation and the consumption of electronics, as well as the transition to zero-emissions technologies...... improvements in extractive technologies, enabling metals to be sought from lower quality ores..."
CSIRO, 2022

However, mining lower quality ores increases the cost, energy,  emissions and environmental footprints.

v) biodiversity decline and investment conservation

The world's natural ecosystems declining, eg the world wide area of live coral is halved since the 1950s; with around 1/4 of all living species at risk of extinction.
"...The intensification of agriculture has led to biodiversity losses and reduced biodiversity based on ecological services, eg pollination, pest management, water retention..."
CSIRO, 2022

Traditionally it has been difficult to quantify the returns on investment in conservation.

vi) turning today's waste into tomorrow's resources

Making our waste productive
"...Advanced recycling technologies can convert end-of-life plastics into their original building blocks to create other valuable commodities and could be used to improve the recovery of plastics..."
CSIRO, 2022

vii) towards net zero and beyond

Despite the rhetoric associated with moving towards net zero emissions by 2050, gas emissions rebounded in 2021
"...Global emissions have risen sharply over the past few decades and......data does not yet show indications of decline..."
CSIRO, 2022

viii) more renewable energy demand

"...global centre for renewable energy generation has shifted east over the last decade, with China having the highest installed solar generation capacity in 2020..."
CSIRO, 2022

The use of solar, wind, water, etc as renewable energy sources is expected to increase significantly from now on, especially as renewable energy technology becomes more effective and cheaper.

ix) environmental footprint of clean energy

"...renewable energy presents opportunities to reduce global emissions, but there are emerging concerns around waste, mining and land use associated with these systems..."
CSIRO, 2022.

For example, the lithium-ion battery waste.

x) electrification of transport

Over the next couple of years, the electric and internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to reach price parity.

"...many vehicle manufacturers have committed to discontinuing the production of internal combustion engine cars within the next two decades..."
CSIRO, 2022

This highlights the need to develop infrastructure and charging stations electric vehicles.

xi) clean energy industries on the rise

"...the global energy transition opens up new industry and job creation opportunities..."
CSIRO, 2022

Countries with abundant access to raw commodities and renewable energy plus advanced manufacturing capabilities and availability of relevant skilled workers will have a competitive advantage in the emerging clean energy industries, such as green metal manufacturing, international steelmakers (eliminating emissions from their supply chains), etc 

xii) the dawn of the hydrogen era

The global green hydrogen industry will play an important role in decarbonisation, eg zero-carbon emissions.

However
"...green hydrogen is currently three times more expensive than blue (natural-gas-powered) hydrogen..."
CSIRO, 2022